← IWTS Phantom Monarch Store Championships
Water Crux MerlinTier 2
at IWTS Phantom Monarch Store Championships
decks
1
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
0-4-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
26.9%
avg ELO -14.8 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
40.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1120
· median 1120
· range 1120–1120
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1120
Q1 1166
Q3 1225
1333
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 20.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
| Fire Exia | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Merlin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
